DOOMSAYERS are having a field day following the overwhelming win for Barisan Nasional’s Wee Jeck Seng in the Tanjung Piai by-election.
The scale of the loss, just over a year into the first term of the “Malaysia Baru” regime, may appear shocking and even unbelievable. But without trying to downplay the significance of the voters’ message, I do think the situation warrants an objective perspective.
In the 2013 general election, the then-Pakatan Rakyat won a lion’s share of the popular vote for the first time in history. That a regime change did not happen caused Malaysians to cry foul. By and large, voters felt robbed. They wanted change, and indeed voted for it, but they were denied by the electoral system.
Elation soon led to deflation as people began to lose hope in the promise of change. A year on, a tragic loss led to a curious by-election opportunity in the semi-rural seat of Teluk Intan, Perak.
It was a seat that the incumbent DAP candidate had won in 2013 with an emphatic 7,313 majority, defeating the prominent local MP, Gerakan president Mah Siew Keong. It was also a mixed seat with a Chinese plurality, which meant that while it was by no means a stronghold for DAP, it was nevertheless a very winnable seat.
In the end, Mah prevailed with a 238 majority over DAP’s Dyana Sofya Mohd Daud. A 7,000-majority loss had been converted into a win. Undeniably, BN had managed to swing votes over, including from Chinese voters, despite an elaborate campaign by Pakatan Rakyat featuring all its leaders including Mat Sabu, Lim Guan Eng and Anwar Ibrahim.
BN was of course delighted by its victory. Claiming that the tide had turned, it appeared to go from strength to strength, winning three of the four following by-elections, the exception being Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail’s victory by a reduced majority in the 2015 Permatang Pauh by-election following her husband’s jailing and subsequent disqualification from parliament.
By 2016, things had only gotten worse. Pakatan Rakyat had broken up, DAP was knee-deep in the hudud quagmire, and Malay support for the coalition was at a record low. No observer would have been faulted for predicting a total loss for the opposition coalition in the next general election.
But as we all know now, Pakatan Harapan went on to form the federal government in 2018.
To be sure, no two by-elections are the same. The contexts for Teluk Intan in 2014 and Tanjung Piai in 2019 differ greatly. For one thing, the governments of the day at both state and federal levels are different.
That said, the point to note here is that by-election voting patterns are completely distinctive to general election voting patterns. To begin with, the stakes are worlds apart. In a general election, there is an awareness of a bigger picture at play, not to mention different campaigning dynamics and the significant votes from returning outstation and overseas voters. In a general election, people also vote to choose a government.
By-elections on the other hand are usually an opportunity for voters to either gain something or to express displeasure. In short, the Tanjung Piai by-election loss is neither shocking nor a foretelling of doom for Pakatan Harapan. It is what it is – a by-election loss and one that is rather consistent with historical trends. It is also unlikely to reflect voting patterns in the next general election.
But while there is no need to panic unnecessarily, it would also be foolhardy to ignore the sentiment of the voters. Clearly, a message has been loudly delivered. There is disillusionment and frustration from voters who perhaps expect much more from the new government.
At the same time, it also proves the efficacy of the Trumpian strategy of fake news and hate speech. So pervasive has it become that Lim Kit Siang even described the by-election as the “most despicable and unprincipled” he has ever seen.
Barisan Nasional will undoubtedly bask in the glory of its strong victory. However, it would be folly for it to read too much into it. Just because it won does not mean that the people have forgiven the coalition, or that they can accept Najib again, or that they want Barisan Nasional back at the helm, especially with PAS as its new ally.
For Pakatan Harapan, this defeat could easily spiral out of control if the coalition does not get its act together, particularly where information and communication is concerned. It is particularly disconcerting that Barisan Nasional appears to be winning the media war, both traditional and social.
The prevalence of fake news and hate speech and their effect on voter sentiment are not to be underestimated and need addressing. As we all know, politics is very much about perception. Much thought and reflection are required if Pakatan Harapan wishes to repair its image.
So where do we go from here? Hopefully not backwards.
*Zairil Khir Johari is the Tanjung Bunga assemblyman.
* This is the opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of The Malaysian Insight. Article may be edited for brevity and clarity.
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Comments
Why is that?
You see, on one hand, he brazenly assumes the loss is neither shocking nor a foretelling of doom. On the other, he realises it will be foolhardy to ignore the message from voters.
Aisay, if there is no need to panic, then why worry? Just continue to do what PH has been doing for the past 18m; after all, according to Zairil, the by-election merely adheres to past trends.
But the biggest complaint I have is this:- boy crying wolf of fake news. Was the icerd fake news? SOSMA repeal fake news? An emasculated Finance ministry fake news? What about UEC? Justice for Teoh Beng Hock? Victims of enforced disappearances? Tolerance of racists and extremists? Fake degrees? Party frogs?
Pray tell us, Zairil, which part, of the above, is fake?
Or Zairil is only concerned on issues which, the other side - UMNO-PAS-BN - use to hammer away at DAP? Because fake news is now one of Lim Kit Siangs favourite excuse which he put up, when facing his opponents.
Of course, one wonders why, is fake news is in proliferation aplenty, then why does not the Pakatan enforce available laws to bring the perpetrators to face the heat.
Pakatan lost for the chief reason of letting Mahathir & co employ old school
politics revolving around race, religion and classic divide n rule.
Now, if you wanna know if PH truly got the message, then just wait to see what Mahathir is going to stay. Whether he admits he is the problem, or whether he starts to blame everyone else.
Posted 4 years ago by Rock Hensem · Reply
Posted 4 years ago by Mongo khan · Reply
Posted 4 years ago by Tanahair Ku · Reply
Posted 4 years ago by Tanahair Ku · Reply
Why withhold funding from TAR UC when it is an institution providing affordable education to the very minorities which DAP is supposedly championing? Wouldn't that made them angry?
Why force MCA to give up control and let the moron Minister of Education turns it into a sub-standard similar to all local universities with added discriminatory and racist policies?
Instead ...... DAP should create a rival .........
If MCA can build TAR UC during the BN era, DAP should be able to build an equivalent one now. I'm sure there are many people willing to donate the seed money.
Let MCA keep TAR UC under their control. DAP builds a new one within their control.
A fierce rivalry between these two education institutions (like Harvard - Yale) will only bring good to Malaysian education.
In fact, instead of forcing MCA to give up control on their institutions, DAP should build a "rival" to prove its superiority. Competition will generate healthy results.
Please let your bosses know .........
Posted 4 years ago by Malaysian First · Reply